Tracking Hurricane Matthew with Respond®
In 2016, Hurricane Matthew became the most significant hurricane event in the U.S. in more than a decade. Verisk Insurance Solutions used Respond™ to track the hurricane winds and storm surge. Respond’s mapping allows you to see the impacts of the hurricane to your business by overlaying storm swaths to your policies-in-force (PIF).
Using hypothetical PIF you can see the power of Respond and the insight it brings to your pre and post-storm preparations.
Hurricane Matthew: Oct 5th
Matthew is now a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds. Matthew made landfall in eastern Cuba last night and is currently moving to the northwest towards the Bahamas, where it is expected to remain a major hurricane as it moves through the Bahamas later today and into tomorrow.
By tomorrow night and into Friday morning Matthew is expected to be close to the Florida coast as a major hurricane. There remains some uncertainty as to the track Matthew will take as it approaches Florida. Many of the models are bringing Matthew along the shore of Florida with 70 mp, while some continue to show Matthew making a direct landfall in Florida and others keep Matthew farther off-shore. It is likely that Matthew would ride along the coast of Florida with the center just off-shore but any deviation in this track could result in either a direct land falling hurricane or Matthew staying farther off-shore with the worst of the storm not making landfall. Hurricane warnings and watches have been posted along the Florida coast.
After Matthew approaches Florida it is likely that the storm will move towards the northeast early Saturday morning and into Sunday. Many of the models are keeping Matthew off the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas and then push the storm out to sea. It is likely that at this point Matthew would be a Category 1 hurricane, although there is greater uncertainty in the track and intensity of Matthew later this week as it is greatly dependent on the track Matthew takes as it approaches Florida and how the storm interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern US that could kick Matthew out to sea.
Hurricane Matthew: Oct 6th
Matthew has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds at 140 mph and could potentially further strengthen through the day today as it continues to make its way through the northwestern Bahamas and head towards Florida. Matthew is forecast to approach the eastern coast of Florida overnight tonight as a Category 4 hurricane. Many of the models are in agreement that Matthew would make landfall in Florida or remain just off-shore with the eye of the storm just brushing along the coast near Cape Canaveral tomorrow morning. Depending on where exactly Matthew tracks, whether it stays just off-shore or moves inland, will determine where the hardest impacts from Matthew will be felt. A slight shift towards the east could keep the strongest winds just off-shore or along the coast of Florida and a slight shift west would bring the strongest winds farther inland.
After tomorrow, Matthew should continue up the coast close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts through the day on Saturday as a Category 2 hurricane, although the strength of the storm at this point is dependent on how Matthew interacts with land in Florida. By Sunday, Matthew is forecast to curve towards the northeast, away from the coast, and then curve more southeasterly early next week, likely at tropical storm strength, as it interacts with a trough over the northern US.
Hurricane warnings have been posted along the eastern coast of Florida and Georgia coast. Hurricane watches have been posted along the South Carolina coast. Tropical storm warnings and watches were posted along the southern and western coast of Florida.
Hurricane Matthew: Oct 7th
Matthew has weakened slightly, into a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds at 120 mph. Some gradual weakening could occur through the day today as it moves up the coast of Florida. Matthew was located about 35 miles north-northeast of Cape Canaveral earlier this morning. Significant impacts from Matthew are likely to occur along the east-central and northeast coast of Florida today.
Tonight and into tomorrow, Matthew should continue to weaken into a Category 2 and then Category 1 hurricane as it continues its track along the Georgia and South Carolina Coast. Many of the models keep Matthew just off-shore of Georgia later tonight and into tomorrow morning and then bring Matthew very close to the shore of South Carolina during the day tomorrow. A slight shift in the track to the west could bring Matthew on-shore, with a potential landfall near Charleston, SC, in a worst case scenario, while a slight shift to the east could keep the worst of Matthew off-shore. Regardless, impacts from Matthew will likely be felt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina later today and into tomorrow.
By tomorrow night, Matthew should turn northeasterly along the extreme southern coast of North Carolina, as it makes its way out to sea early next week.
Hurricane warnings are posted along the central and northern east coast of FL and along the Georgia, South Carolina and southern coast of North Carolina. Tropical Storm warnings have been posted along the central and northern coast of North Carolina.
Hurricane Matthew: Oct 8th
Matthew is now a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds at 85 mph. Matthew should continue to weaken today as it continues its track along the South Carolina coast. Matthew rode up along the Georgia coast overnight and as of 7 am this morning was located about 30 miles south-southwest of Charleston, South Carolina. The eye wall of Matthew is just brushing along the southern South Carolina coast this morning, where hurricane-force wind gusts are being felt along coastal regions of extreme eastern Georgia and South Carolina, from Tybee Island northeastward towards the Charleston Harbor. It remains very possible that Matthew will track just on-shore of South Carolina today as it turns northeastward. Regardless, impacts from Matthew will continue to be felt along South Carolina today.
By tonight, Matthew should be pulling away from the South Carolina coast, as continues its northeastward track along the southern North Carolina coast before shifting more eastward. Impacts from Matthew will likely be felt along the North Carolina coast today and into tonight.
Tomorrow, Matthew is forecast to continue to track out to sea. Some models are showing Matthew curving more southerly early next week and then dipping back down by the Bahamas towards mid to late next week. It is too soon to know exactly what Matthew will do this late in the forecast period but there is some potential that it would make a second pass to the Bahamas, likely as a Depression or even just a remnant low.
Hurricane warnings remain along the Georgia, South Carolina and southern North Carolina coast. A hurricane watch remains along the south-central North Carolina coast and tropical storm warnings remain along the central and northern coast of North Carolina.
Hurricane Matthew: Oct 9th
Matthew is now a post tropical cyclone with sustained winds at 75 mph and as of 8 am this morning, was located about 60 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Matthew is finally tracking out to sea, after making landfall yesterday southeast of McClellanville, SC and then tracking to the northeast just off the coast of southern North Carolina. Impacts were felt yesterday across South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia.
Today, Matthew is expected to continue to track out to sea and gradually weaken over the next couple of days where it will likely dissipate in 48 – 72 hours, as it interacts with a cold front. Despite its track away from the coast, strong winds are still expected along coastal regions of North Carolina today. There is potential for near-hurricane force winds today over the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings remain along coastal North Carolina.
How does Respond forecast weather-related impact?
Respond provides a 5-day forecast, precise post-storm mapping of wind swaths at 1 km resolution, storm surge flooding maps at high-resolution, daily updates (4x), and accurate modeling of storms through the lifecycle, including during extratropical transition.
Understanding a storm’s impact prior to FNOL allows you to forecast claim volume, estimate and analyze losses, and reduce loss adjustment expenses. You are also able to appropriate and mobilize resources quickly to areas where support is most needed.
Respond analysis overlaid on your PIF visualizes policyholder locations and coverage values with a high probability of exposure to damaging perils. A hypothetical PIF impact report can help you understand the effects of weather-related peril.
Learn more about how Respond can help you prepare for and proactively react to severe weather events.